Monday, October 24, 2011

CREDIT MARKETS: Taking Cues From Stocks, Corporate Bonds Gain

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Corporate credit markets strengthened Monday, although new issuance remained scarce, as stocks were boosted by strong earnings reports and a resurgence in mergers and acquisitions activity.

Two key derivatives indexes that measure the health of corporate credit both improved Monday. The CDX North America Investment Grade index was 3.8% better from Friday's closing levels, at a midpoint of 126.4 basis points, while its high-yield counterpart was 1.3% improved at 92.6 basis points, according to index administrator Markit.


Investment-Grade Corporates


No new issues were on tap Monday as a continuous stream of earnings grabbed investor focus and deterred borrowing.

Trading in the cash market was measured. Verizon's (VZ) 6.00% issue due 2041 traded four basis points wider to 132 basis points, and was the most actively traded high-grade bond this session, according to MarketAxess.

American International Group Inc. (AIG) unveiled an exchange offer for up to $2.5 billion in debt, as it aims to reduce its overall debt levels. The company said it plans to exchange several series of junior subordinated debentures, denominated in euros, British pounds and U.S. dollars, for new notes with a lower principal amount. The company also expects the exchange to improve its interest expense and fixed-charge coverage metrics.

AIG earlier this month said it has entered two new credit facilities worth $4.5 billion to replace others that had less favorable terms.

The company in August reported that it swung to an income of $1.84 billion in the second quarter from a loss of $2.66 billion a year earlier, as its results were largely free from the restructuring costs and other extraordinary charges that have plagued the company since its 2008 bailout.


Junk Bonds


High-yield bonds gained Monday as well. Bonds issued by Ford Motor Corp. (F) and McClatchy Newspapers Inc. (MNI) gained during the day as buyers found reasons to like junk-rated debt with high yields.

Meanwhile, the new issuance market was dominated by the large $1.65 billion, seven-year senior notes issue from Kinetic Concepts Inc. (KCI). The issue's price talk is between 10.75% and 11%, and it is expected to price later Monday evening.


Municipal Bonds


Muni bonds barely budged Monday, with yields on bonds due to mature in 14 years or more rising by 1 basis point while all other maturities were unchanged, according to Thomson Reuters Municipal Market Data.

Muni-bond issuance should remain at strong levels through mid-December, according to Citi, and this week is no exception with roughly $6 billion in debt on tap. There are no blockbuster deals, notes Citi, but there are a number of medium- and large-sized issues. The Ipreo calendar shows four deals of $476 million or larger, and 18 bigger than $100 million, an "unusually large number." Citi views the diversity as a buying opportunity for investors.


Mortgages


Mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) plummeted on Monday after the top housing regulator surprised investors by expanding an existing refinancing program to more borrowers and removing a hurdle that has kept banks from approving loans.

MBS tied to loans with high interest rates fell to the lowest level in at least six months as those mortgages are the ones seen most affected by the move to help homeowners who owe more than their properties are worth.

Under the new plan, the Federal Housing Finance Agency will allow refinancing of loans guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac no matter the home's value, and will extend the term of its Home Affordable Refinance Program, or HARP, through 2013, the FHFA said. It will waive some liabilities to banks, giving the lenders more incentive to close loans with risky characteristics.

Since 2009, only 894,000 borrowers have used the HARP, of which just 70,000 were significantly underwater. The FHFA said the changes "may roughly double or more" the number of homeowners who enroll, while analysts at Barclays Capital estimated up to 3.1 million loans are eligible for the program.

Fannie Mae 6% MBS fell 25/32 to 108-29/32--the lowest price since April 14--underperforming Treasury benchmarks by about the same degree, according to Locus, a Credit Suisse analytics platform. Fannie Mae's 4% MBS declined 4/32 to 103-5/32--lagging their benchmarks by just 1/32--helped by ongoing Federal Reserve MBS purchases and speculation that the buying could be expanded.


Treasurys


Treasury investors were lying low Monday as they awaited Wednesday's potentially groundbreaking euro-zone plan from the sidelines, leaving prices a tad lower after a tight-ranged trading session.

The fixation on Europe has led other traditional market-moving events to go mostly unnoticed--including economic reports and a recent series of Federal Reserve officials who have dropped hints about another round of quantitative easing.

Instead, attention was set squarely on the few details that did arise from the euro-zone gathering over the weekend, which showed signs of progress at figuring out the region's debt problems. This included hints of a broad agreement to keep the euro-zone banking system well cushioned, and word that officials have agreed to bolster the region's bailout fund to more than EUR1 trillion.

Still, losses in the Treasurys market were minor. This was partly because of pressure going into this week's round of supply, analysts say, but also a reflection of investors' unwillingness to stray too far from the safety of U.S. government bonds until hearing Wednesday's announcement.

In late-afternoon trading, benchmark 10-year notes declined 6/32 in price to yield 2.228%, while two-year notes lost a fraction in price to yield 0.283%. The 30-year bond lost 8/32 in price to yield 3.267% despite the Federal Reserve's $2.5 billon long-dated purchases this morning.

-By Michael Aneiro, Dow Jones Newswires; (212) 416-2203; michael.aneiro@dowjones.com

--Kellie Geressy-Nilsen, Kelly Nolan, Al Yoon, Katy Burne, Prabha Natarajan, Tess Stynes and Cynthia Lin contributed to this report.

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